Sunday, October 5, 2008

The Economy Spells Trouble for Incumbents

The above cartoon pretty well sums up the feelings many voters have toward the Wall Street bailout package passed on Friday. Just how is the economic crisis affecting the elections so far?

It's clear the fallout of the current economic turmoil will have repercussions on November 4th, though it's too early to tell how much. However, even before the news of Wall streets woes broke the GOP was in trouble. The number of once safe Republican Senate and House seats that are now in play or outright favoring Democratic challengers should be alarming to Republican strategists. With no Democratic held seats in serious jeopardy by Republicans, the Republican Party is going to need to fight hard to keep from being swept into irrelevancy on November 4th. Making their job harder, McCain's campaign has conceded defeat in Michigan and has effectively terminated his campaign efforts there. Many Michigan Republicans are not happy, to say the least. Even discounting this black news, hard work may not be enough to save the GOP as polling data suggests a miracle will be needed to retain even a handful of it's seats up for grabs this year. This is definitely going to be a watershed year in American Politics.

Data from FiveThirtyEight illustrates the grim prospects facing the Republican Party.



In a bit of a surprise, Democrat Kay Hagan is leading Incumbent Sen. Elizabeth Dole 46 percent to 38 percent in a Public Policy Polling survey conducted September 28-29. With a month to go, Dole has plenty of time to turn the tide, but as of now momentum is favoring Hagan. If NC goes for Obama, the resulting wave might be the nail in Sen. Dole's political coffin.

The above is just one example of the sorrows facing the Republican Party. GOP strategists fear that a tidal sentiment brought on by voters desire for change could push the Democrats up to the magic 60 seat number effectively making Republicans irrelevant at least until the next elections in 2010.

6 comments:

Kanani said...

This is encouraging news for anyone what loves this country. It's just sad that it takes a 'crisis' to make people use their brains to vote. I'm so glad I haven't really even heard gay marriage or abortion in this election season.

Kevin said...

I'm actually surprised we haven't heard much about abortion or other wedge issues. Those are the meat of the Republican platform which serve to draw out the base. Look for Republican turnout to be unusually low if they don't drum up the hate/fear rhetoric.

Joseph said...

Yeh, I would agree. I think in the beginning they probably wanted to have those issues in the forfront, but decided against it.
To me, those particular issues aren't as important as they used to be.
They're already starting with the politics of fear, via their mouthpiece Pain. By the way, that woman is not smart. Just an aside. I digress.

Ike's Blog...Expect Randomness! said...

Didn't you once back the bail out bill. Sad to see that these companies did not need a bail out. They just needed to lay off a couple of executives...and use that money for their pay check to bail the company out.

Oh and I went to the pump and paid 3.95 for a gallon of gas. I literally saved 25.00 this gas up. Nice!

Joseph said...

$3.95? Where are you? Wales?

Ike's Blog...Expect Randomness! said...

whoops I meant 2.95...